Risk And Uncertainty In Economics Pdf FilesWhat is the difference between risk and uncertainty in economics? What is the difference between Keynesian economics. Uncertainty - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Situations often arise wherein a decision must be made when the results of each possible choice are uncertain. Uncertainty is a situation which involves imperfect and/or unknown information. ![]() It arises in subtly different ways in a number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, and information science. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable and/or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance and/or indolence. A state of having limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome. Measurement of uncertainty. A set of possible states or outcomes where probabilities are assigned to each possible state or outcome . The essential fact is that 'risk' means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far- reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of the two is really present and operating.. It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or 'risk' proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. We say that you are uncertain about them. You are uncertain, to varying degrees, about everything in the future; much of the past is hidden from you; and there is a lot of the present about which you do not have full information. Uncertainty is everywhere and you cannot escape from it. Dennis Lindley, Understanding Uncertainty (2. For example, if it is unknown whether or not it will rain tomorrow, then there is a state of uncertainty. If probabilities are applied to the possible outcomes using weather forecasts or even just a calibrated probability assessment, the uncertainty has been quantified. Suppose it is quantified as a 9. In his seminal work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. A paper exploring the foundations of risk. Concise Encyclopedia of Economics. FRANK KNIGHT ON RISK, UNCERTAINTY, AND THE FIRM: A NEW INTERPRETATION. Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty by MARK J. MACHINA Distinguished Professor of Economics University of California, San Diego, CA, USA W. The economics of uncertainty impacts our decision to play the lottery. Keywords: Expected utility theory; risk aversion; expected value; gambling. If there is a major, costly, outdoor event planned for tomorrow then there is a risk since there is a 1. Furthermore, if this is a business event and $1. These situations can be made even more realistic by quantifying light rain vs. That is useful if the organizer of the event is . Most would be willing to pay a premium to avoid the loss. An insurance company, for example, would compute an EOL as a minimum for any insurance coverage, then add onto that other operating costs and profit. Since many people are willing to buy insurance for many reasons, then clearly the EOL alone is not the perceived value of avoiding the risk. Quantitative uses of the terms uncertainty and risk are fairly consistent from fields such as probability theory, actuarial science, and information theory. Some also create new terms without substantially changing the definitions of uncertainty or risk. For example, surprisal is a variation on uncertainty sometimes used in information theory. But outside of the more mathematical uses of the term, usage may vary widely. In cognitive psychology, uncertainty can be real, or just a matter of perception, such as expectations, threats, etc. Vagueness or ambiguity are sometimes described as . The difference here is that this uncertainty is about the human definitions and concepts, not an objective fact of nature. It is usually modeled by some variation on Zadeh's fuzzy logic. It has been argued that ambiguity, however, is always avoidable while uncertainty (of the . That is, there may be uncertainty about whether a new rocket design will work, but this uncertainty can be removed with further analysis and experimentation. At the subatomic level, however, uncertainty may be a fundamental and unavoidable property of the universe. In quantum mechanics, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle puts limits on how much an observer can ever know about the position and velocity of a particle. This may not just be ignorance of potentially obtainable facts but that there is no fact to be found. There is some controversy in physics as to whether such uncertainty is an irreducible property of nature or if there are . A derived work is for example the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) Technical Note 1. The uncertainty of the result of a measurement generally consists of several components. The components are regarded as random variables, and may be grouped into two categories according to the method used to estimate their numerical values: By propagating the variances of the components through a function relating the components to the measurement result, the combined measurement uncertainty is given as the square root of the resulting variance. The simplest form is the standard deviation of a repeated observation. In metrology, physics, and engineering, the uncertainty or margin of error of a measurement, when explicitly stated, is given by a range of values likely to enclose the true value. This may be denoted by error bars on a graph, or by the following notations: measured value . For example, applying 1. The precision is symmetric around the last digit. In this case its half a tenth up and half a tenth down, so 1. Thus it is understood that 1. But if the accuracy is within two tenths, the uncertainty is . The numbers in parenthesis apply to the numeral left of themselves, and are not part of that number, but part of a notation of uncertainty. They apply to the least significant digits. For instance, 7. 00. This can occur when using a logarithmic scale, for example. Often, the uncertainty of a measurement is found by repeating the measurement enough times to get a good estimate of the standard deviation of the values. Then, any single value has an uncertainty equal to the standard deviation. However, if the values are averaged, then the mean measurement value has a much smaller uncertainty, equal to the standard error of the mean, which is the standard deviation divided by the square root of the number of measurements. This procedure neglects systematic errors, however. When the uncertainty represents the standard error of the measurement, then about 6. For example, it is likely that for 3. If the width of the interval is doubled, then probably only 4. These values follow from the properties of the normal distribution, and they apply only if the measurement process produces normally distributed errors. In that case, the quoted standard errors are easily converted to 6. The lower the accuracy and precision of an instrument, the larger the measurement uncertainty is. Notice that precision is often determined as the standard deviation of the repeated measures of a given value, namely using the same method described above to assess measurement uncertainty. However, this method is correct only when the instrument is accurate. When it is inaccurate, the uncertainty is larger than the standard deviation of the repeated measures, and it appears evident that the uncertainty does not depend only on instrumental precision. Uncertainty and the media. Also, in the public realm, there are often many scientific voices giving input on a single topic. For example, global warming contrarian activists took the advice of Frank Luntz to frame global warming as an issue of scientific uncertainty, which was a precursor to the conflict frame used by journalists when reporting the issue. Because the general public (in the United States) generally trusts scientists, when science stories are covered without alarm- raising cues from special interest organizations (religious groups, environmental organization, political factions, etc.) they are often covered in a business related sense, in an economic- development frame or a social progress frame. Numerical values should only be expressed to those digits that are physically meaningful, which are referred to as significant figures. Uncertainty is involved in every measurement, such as measuring a distance, a temperature, etc., the degree depending upon the instrument or technique used to make the measurement. Similarly, uncertainty is propagated through calculations so that the calculated value has some degree of uncertainty depending upon the uncertainties of the measured values and the equation used in the calculation. According to economist Frank Knight, it is different from risk, where there is a specific probability assigned to each outcome (as when flipping a fair coin). Uncertainty involves a situation that has unknown probabilities, while the estimated probabilities of possible outcomes need not add to unity. In entrepreneurship: New products, services, firms and even markets are often created in the absence of probability estimates. According to entrepreneurship research, expert entrepreneurs predominantly use experience based heuristics called effectuation (as opposed to causality) to overcome uncertainty. In metrology, measurement uncertainty is a central concept quantifying the dispersion one may reasonably attribute to a measurement result. Such an uncertainty can also be referred to as a measurement error. In daily life, measurement uncertainty is often implicit (. The expected measurement uncertainty of many measuring instruments (scales, oscilloscopes, force gages, rulers, thermometers, etc.) is often stated in the manufacturer's specification. Uncertainty has been a common theme in art, both as a thematic device (see, for example, the indecision of Hamlet), and as a quandary for the artist (such as Martin Creed's difficulty with deciding what artworks to make). See also. Udacity: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence^Douglas Hubbard (2. How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, 2nd ed. John Wiley & Sons. Description, contents, and preview.^Jean- Jacques Laffont (1. The Economics of Uncertainty and Information, MIT Press. Description and chapter- preview links.^Jean- Jacques Laffont (1. Essays in the Economics of Uncertainty, Harvard University Press.
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Requires the Under Secretary to: (1) establish in the Management Directorate a mechanism to prioritize improving the accountability, standardization, and transparency of major DHS acquisition programs to increase opportunities for effectiveness and efficiencies and to serve as the central oversight function of all DHS acquisition programs; and (2) designate an Executive Director to oversee the operation of such mechanism. Sets forth the duties of the Executive Director. Requires each head of a Component to comply with federal law, the Federal Acquisition Regulation, and DHS acquisition management directives established by the Under Secretary for Management. 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Sets forth the responsibilities of the Board, including to: (1) determine whether a proposed acquisition has met the requirements of key phases of the acquisition life cycle framework and is able to proceed to the next phase and eventual full production and deployment; (2) oversee executable business strategy, resources, management, accountability, and alignment to strategic initiatives; and (3) conduct systematic reviews of acquisitions. Requires the Secretary to: (1) notify the congressional homeland security committees (i. House Committees on Appropriations and Homeland Security and the Senate Committees on Appropriations and Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs) of any decision to approve a major acquisition program without a DHS- approved acquisition program baseline within 7 days after an acquisition decision memorandum is signed, and (2) report within the next 6. Requires the Deputy Secretary of DHS to establish DHS- wide policies to assist DHS in identifying, validating, and prioritizing standards for common Component requirements to increase opportunities for effectiveness and efficiencies. Requires the Under Secretary for Management to coordinate actions to establish such policies using mechanisms necessary to reduce duplication and inefficiency for all DHS investments, including major acquisition programs. Requires the Comptroller General to conduct a review of the Acquisition Review Board and the requirements to reduce duplication in acquisition programs. ![]() Requires the Secretary to notify the congressional homeland security committees within five days after the issuance of a waiver by the Secretary of requirements that an agency not engage in business with a contractor in the Excluded Party List System maintained by the General Services Administration and an explanation of the compelling reason for taking such action. Authorizes the DHS Inspector General to audit decisions about grant and procurement awards to identify: (1) instances where a contract or grant was improperly awarded to a suspended or debarred entity, and (2) whether corrective actions were taken to prevent recurrence. Directs the DHS Inspector General to review the DHS suspension and debarment program to assess whether suspension and debarment criteria are consistently applied and whether disparities exist in the application of such criteria, particularly with respect to business size and categories. Title III: Acquisition Program Management Accountability and Transparency - Establishes a process for notifying DHS officials of a breach (e. Requires notice of a breach in an acquisition program with a cost overrun greater than 1. Secretary and Inspector General of DHS. Prohibits funding for a major acquisition program. ![]() ![]() Acquisition reform bill could mean better record-keeping at DHS. It starts at the very outset of a program with an agreed-upon baseline. Tell Congress what you think about H.R. 2199 The DHS Acquisition Accountability and Efficiency Act on POPVOX, a civic tech platform connecting people and government. Homeland Security: Observations on DHS's Oversight of Major Acquisitions and Efforts to Match Resources to Needs GAO-13-846T. Improving DHS Accountability for Acquisitions. Customs and Border Protection unmanned aerial vehicle. Every major acquisition program will have an approved acquisition program baseline document. ![]()
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